Phase 1 might go straight through Warwickshire, but places such as Coventry and other parts of the county will not receive the direct benefits of a station, with only the big cities benefiting from a sparkling city centre terminus. But they will still gain through additional connectivity.
With this in mind, there may be more the railway industry can do, and more industry bodies can do, to illustrate those benefits early on. If it is still too early, isn’t there still a disconnect between people who can see what’s happening way off in the future, but struggle to understand the benefits now. To coin the phraseology that HS2 Ltd uses internally… ‘what’s in it for Bob and Maureen?’
Kelly responds: “I think it’s the same answer to a lot of the public, which is they will only really think about the benefits of HS2 when it is easier for them to actually see what’s in it for them.
“Whether it’s on the route, or whether it’s not quite on the route, I think as an industry we have to work to demonstrate in a practical way what the benefit is. I think that will evolve in time, and will become easier as people begin to see construction taking place, and the day when the potential of the first train comes nearer.
“If you look at, for instance, the current Leeds to Birmingham journey, which takes two hours, that will shrink to one hour. That is in an area that contains some of this country’s most advanced, most high-tech manufacturing.
“The ability of people to travel to use their skills, the ability of families to think that their children can stay in the communities that reared them and get valuable worthwhile jobs for a career, is what will be the end product of HS2.”
Nevertheless, Kelly concedes that those achievements in journey time reduction and the associated benefits are too distant for people to say it is going to be a practical benefit that will happen in their lifetimes. “But that day will come. I am absolutely confident of that. And that is when people will begin to see where benefit lies.
“The industry needs to work together to make sure that that beneficial effect is felt as widely as possible. That is why HS2 cannot be seen as a standalone project, but has to be seen as not just part of the wider rail network, but of the wider transport network. And that’s why we need to think about the strategic.”
The next six months will be crucial. The General Election campaign will undoubtedly throw a spotlight on HS2 - and the impact it will have both locally and nationally.
“General Elections always change the weather, because that’s what they’re intended to do. Therefore, whoever is in Government, I have no doubt that we will once again have to explain why HS2 is necessary and demonstrate how we’re going about it in a confident and efficient way. That is right and proper. We will try and do that.”
Kelly is certainly taking nothing for granted: “I think that the moment you take something for granted is the moment in the project that you risk losing it. So we have to keep listening, keep responding, and keep talking to the people up and down this country who have begun to engage and who have begun to think of how they don’t just have to accept the status quo, as things can change.”
It’s a slightly unfair question as Higgins isn’t present to answer it himself, but some recent newspaper reports suggested that if the political support were not forthcoming, Higgins would leave his role. Is that a danger?
“All he was doing in front of the Transport Select Committee was pointing out the factual position on his contract. And - not wanting to sound presumptuous about what a future Secretary of State might decide or not decide - I think that was over-interpreted, if I could be so bold.”
“I think you had other words for it at the time!” Kelly is reminded by Ruse.
“I’m being diplomatic!” replies Kelly.
The point, as Higgins has always said, is that he absolutely needs political support to do this. “A project like this demands consensus, but we should never take that consensus for granted.” So if the political consensus was to disintegrate, would it make any difference who was in the post of HS2 chairman?
“I think that absolute political consensus is absolutely vital. But what’s also vital is that we maintain the understanding of local politicians up and down the country, because HS2 is one of those projects that is in the national interest, but also of very particular local interest. Therefore we have to try and maintain that wide understanding.
“It will not mean that we will have everybody’s support for everything we do. But I hope there will be a general understanding of why we are doing what we are doing and why we’re recommending what we’re recommending, even if people don’t 100% agree with it.”
Liverpool is one example of that understanding, continuing with its ‘20 Miles More’ campaign. So too is Stoke, which came late to the party with a last-ditch attempt to have the route of Phase 2 (on the western arm of the ‘Y’) diverted through the city.
“Both Liverpool and Stoke will benefit from us going further north,” says Kelly. “Would they both like different particular outcomes? Yes. We have to make the right judgement and make the recommendation that the Secretary of State has to decide.
“It is the difference between today and this time last year that is foremost in some people’s minds. This time last year was about particular local concern and then they thought about the overall strategic interest.
“I think people have now begun to accept the strategic interest, while still wanting to look after their local concern. But I think people are prepared to accept that it will benefit the North and the Midlands in a way they hadn’t perhaps expected from last year, while they still work on their particular concerns.”
Was Higgins’ decision to involve Crewe earlier in the programme a game-changer? It could be argued that this was the moment when things began to change in terms of getting the support and wider engagement with the project.
“I think there was a fear that this was a way of getting to Birmingham and then the political impetus behind the project would stop. By saying that we wanted to take it further north sooner, people began to accept that we were serious about the ‘why’.”
Kelly believes this was set out in Rebalancing Britain, with Higgins going back to basics, and asking the question: ‘is the why actually justified?’ It set out looking at the current demand picture, but from the West and East.
“I think people now accept that we recognise that the rail game-changer is reducing the journey times to Leeds and Manchester and the places in between. Incrementally, you cannot do that.”
Talk of closing parts of the West Coast Main Line over Christmas is just palatable - but to have all the main lines closing for essential major engineering works, as more and more demands are placed on the railway, is unthinkable. Engineering works are a massive disruption and not something Network Rail likes doing, but increasingly the network is forced to take such decisions.
“I think that people concentrated on speed - and speed is important - and time. But the third factor is predictability, knowing that if you turn up the train will arrive on time, leave on time, and get you to the place you want to be on time.” This all means that passengers won’t need to employ the ‘just in case’ scenario.
“I went from Hereford to Birmingham International Airport at the weekend,” explains Kelly.
“Train number one, from Worcester to Birmingham, was standing room only. For train number two, I got an earlier train just in case.
“Now, for HS2, that ‘just in case’ has gone. In my case, that will save me a couple of hours. And that worry, that anxiety, isn’t really worth the hassle.”
Kelly relates the current stresses of train travel to his earlier point about the importance of ideas and meetings mattering in a competitive economy: “That’s what will disappear. That’s what will make people more likely to go to a meeting and therefore more likely to contribute to an idea that will change things. That’s what’s important.”
At Leeds Civic Hall in October, Higgins spoke of his visit to Silicon Valley and his realisation that it wasn’t just the cluster of cutting-edge companies that made them meet, but the infrastructure.
“It was the Highway 101, it was the 22 miles that connected, that made it easier for people to socialise, to get together, to think. It’s that connectivity that we have to try and re-create,” he said.
“And that’s why East-West is important, it’s why cross country is important, Rotherham to Derby is important, the Nottingham to Birmingham journey is important. Going further north sooner took us into the connectivity argument, in a way that just going to Birmingham wouldn’t have done.”
