It states that rolling stock procurement should, in most cases, be market-based and franchise-led. “By putting train operators and fleet owners at the centre of planning and delivering rolling stock, better value for money can be achieved, as will be the case for the new and additional rolling stock to be procured for the North of England.”
Wood, speaking about the need for testing of new trains, says that things are beginning to change regarding performance, but notices that there are certain trends regarding deliveries: “The UK has always been given a ridiculous lead time to deliver trains. Where there is a long lead time it tends to be where DfT has led the project. The commuter market tends to be much tighter.”
Bombardier’s Parker says: “As a supplier, the trickiest thing is the different emerging strategies for every operator. We believe it is a bigger concern for the financiers. It’s not necessarily tricky to deal with. In the early days of a bid you can get diverging strategies emerging and we can offer three versions of the same platform for three different operators. We then need to keep track.”
NR Principal Engineer James Ambrose said of the IPEMU back in February: “There’s a desire for more electrification, but it is not viable to electrify the entire railway - is there another answer?” He elaborates on this point: “Low bridges, etc, are very expensive to wire due to the infrastructure. Trains may be able to coast, but a train could ‘sit down’ . Long distance Independent Power could help, but the big win could be the ability to traverse ‘gaps’, such as travelling from east to west across a line that is not electrified.” Parker says of the possibility of IPEMU: “Let’s say electrification will always have gaps. These will be small pockets and there will be pockets that will always need DMUs. But if the pocket is perhaps 10% or more of the route then use IPEMU.”
Ambrose believes that there are plenty of benefits to the project. “There is reduced rolling stock costs, reduced electrification costs and it’ll be far better than relying on fossil fuel for power.”
Network Rail is due to issue a strategy document, which has been delayed since late March, regarding electrification. At the February 9 event to launch the IPEMU it was made clear that IPEMU would feature in that. Ambrose says: “It will consider the conversion of DC to AC power - and also IP fleets.”
Per Allmer, Head of Western Europe, Middle East and the Africa region at Bombardier Transportation says: “The IPEMU demonstrates what battery technology can offer the rail industry. Following extensive design and testing work, the train has now successfully begun a trial passenger service, to prove the viability of the concept. It’s a technology we can incorporate onto future new-build trains, such as our Aventra platform, and retro-fit into existing modern rail vehicles, adding value to existing fleets.”
Additionally, the strategy includes updated fleet size forecasts to show the ‘Electric and Bi-mode’ fleet totals increasing by between 1,900 and 2,500 over the course of CP6 in the three scenarios. This compares with an increase of between 2,500 and 3,100 over the course of CP5, it claims.
It is not possible, it states, to predict how many older electric vehicles and electrically-hauled vehicles will be permanently retired during these control periods, and also how many EMUs, which may temporarily be off-lease at the end of 2019, may move back into operational use during CP6.
Nevertheless, it appears highly likely on the basis of the assumptions contained in this analysis that the total number of new vehicles required to be delivered in CP6 will be lower than in CP5.
The rolling stock strategy states: “The total net increase in fleet size is forecast to be lower in Control Period 6 (2019-2024) than in CP5 (2014-2019), following completion of the very large orders for the Thameslink, Crossrail and IEP projects. Britain’s rail industry and its suppliers have several times experienced large fluctuations of demand for new vehicles and other equipment, and it is important that this is avoided so far as possible in future if the confidence of investors and the supply chain is to be increased.
“This would be helped by early Government commitment to a specific programme of electrification for CP6.” Next year, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) will issue its draft conclusions for the next control period. It wants innovation, but stresses that the industry must lead that, not the regulator. ORR Chairman Anna Walker said on May 12: “We need to recognise electrification is massive. We have not done this for a long time. We are actively working with Network Rail to learn. We need to turn the problems into positives. We need to define the costs, the planning and the delivery.
“I can say there is an enormous will to work together. Things are not how we want them to be, but we need to plan ahead for more than the current control period, or the next one. You have to look five, ten, 15, 20 years ahead. I have confidence we can do that.”
Back to the strategy, which claims: “Electrification will, in many cases, permit longer trains, and will enable diesel trains to be transferred to non-electrified routes, where growth has been constrained by a lack of sufficient vehicles.
“The modelling of electrification and growth demonstrates a reduction in rolling stock unit costs of more than 30% in all scenarios. The strategy emphasises the resulting benefits to passengers, including improvements to punctuality and reliability.”
Walker spoke more than two months after the strategy was published. The strategy states that the present total national Network Rail track mileage is 19,336 single track miles (excluding depots and sidings). Of this, 8,008 track miles (41.4%) are electrified and 11,312 track miles (58.6%) are non-electrified. It states that 64 track miles of new electrification were completed in 2013/2014, in the North West of England and in Scotland.
It adds that in the whole of CP4 (2009-2014) new electrification was added to 204 track miles. Following the completion of around 1,850 track miles of electrification currently authorised, more than half of the national track miles (51%) will be electrified.
Although the Department for Transport cannot yet commit to a rolling programme of electrification beyond CP5, the direction of Government policy is to continue such a programme into CP6 and beyond. Views were sought by the DfT on this in response to the 2012 High Level Output Specification (HLOS).
Transport Scotland’s CP5 HLOS already contains a specific objective of a rolling programme of electrification amounting to approximately 60 single track miles per annum, following the completion of the Edinburgh-Glasgow Improvement Programme (EGIP) electrification.
In an age of austerity, value for money is key. The strategy states: “Rolling stock-related costs per vehicle mile can be reduced in real terms as a result of these changes because the costs of leasing, maintenance and energy for new electric vehicles are substantially lower than the costs for comparable new diesel vehicles; also the costs of older electric vehicles are significantly less than for comparable older diesel vehicles.
“The presently committed programme of electrification will take the proportion of track mileage that is electrified from 41% to 51%. The Low, Medium and High scenarios in this rolling stock strategy (RSS), based on some initial ranking, illustrate the potential to increase this figure to 62%, 71% or 77% in subsequent years.”
But there is also a warning: “Future energy costs and the relative costs of diesel fuel and electricity are very difficult to forecast. Electricity costs are currently rising to help pay for lower carbon sources, while diesel fuel costs have fallen sharply.
“This factor, if it continued in the medium to long term, would have some impact on the business case for some electrification projects, but would not undermine the key conclusions of this RSS.”
It also points out: “Investor and supply chain confidence would be enhanced, and costs potentially reduced if funders could make early commitments to a future electrification programme beyond CP5. Ministerial and departmental commitment to a specific and significant programme of electrification in CP6 would greatly help Network Rail and the suppliers of electrification.”
It seems the industry agrees OLE is the future. Funding and planning look set to be the key issues. And much more debate on the subject is inevitable.
- This feature was published in RAIL 775 on May 27 2015
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