Northern wires: not ‘if’ but ‘when’

Many rail lines in the North of England could be electrified if recommendations made in the Northern Electrification Task Force report, which was published in March, become a reality.

The report, which was commissioned by Secretary of State for Transport Patrick McLoughlin in December 2013, is intended to provide a basis for “a rolling plan for further electrification” that will set the agenda for the period after the current Control Period 5, which ends in March 2019.

The task force was set up to identify the priorities for electrifying the remaining rail routes in the North of England, as seen from a northern perspective. It is intended to act as a precursor to the preparation of detailed business cases and what it describes as ‘quantified justification’ - in other words putting a price on the individual schemes.

It is hoped that by establishing priorities for electrification, work can begin on routes that will bring the biggest economic impact to the North first.

The rolling programme of electrification proposed has, as its long-term aim, the electrification of virtually all the railway across the North of England, assuming that the programme meets the criteria for value for money and environmental objectives - in essence, creating a low-carbon economy.

The 32 lines covered by the Northern Rail and First TransPennine Express franchise areas currently without electrification have all been considered and prioritised, with the results having been grouped into three tiers. Tier One schemes are the most immediate priority, and touch on most of the North’s major cities.

“We have placed economic growth at the centre of our work,” says Andrew Jones, Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough. Since the report was published, he has been appointed Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Department for Transport.

“The Task Force agreed early on that the economic benefits of electrification would be the dominant factor in our assessments. We have worked on the premise that all the lines of the North would be electrified, it is only a question of when,” says Jones in the foreword to the report.

He adds: “As a Task Force, we have been clear that investment in infrastructure is sorely needed across the North; that it would drive economic growth and improve the lives of northerners” says Jones, who adds that the recommendations in the report are aimed at “providing direction for where investment should go next”.

“We recognise that the modernisation of our national rail network is a task of generational scale requiring huge investment. But the job has started, and this report is intended to look years ahead, beyond one control period”.

Economic benefit was the most important factor when considering each of the lines for electrification, taking anything up to 50% of the total marks available.

This was followed by the Impact of Services (diesel train kilometres replaced per electrified kilometres), taking up to 30%, while rolling stock capacity and quality accounted for the other 20%. Each line assessed could get a total mark of 100%. The highest score was the Calder Valley route at 84%, while the lowest scoring line was Skipton-Lancaster-Morecambe-Heysham at 7% (see table).

Tier One lines scored anything between 64-84%, while Tier Two lines attained 45-59% and Tier Three between seven and 38%. Of all the lines assessed, it is notable that the electrification of Selby-Hull could be achieved without any public finance at all, if current plans by First Hull Trains come to fruition and are approved by the Secretary of State.

Importantly, the current timetable was used for the ranking work (which would not take into account the future benefits of faster and better accelerating electric trains) - meaning that the full potential of post-electrification benefits have not been taken into account.

In total, the report envisages some 950 single track kilometres being electrified (or 590 single track miles). The Task Force envisages some £10 million of funding would be required to outline business cases for the Tier One schemes. This work would be undertaken in conjunction with the rail industry’s long-term planning process.

The Task Force’s report also complements the Northern Transport Strategy, which has five key objectives. Firstly, it aims for a “dramatic speeding up of rail journey times between the six city centres” of Manchester, Sheffield, Liverpool, Newcastle, Leeds and Bradford. This would be based on what would be achievable with contemporary intercity standards. In addition, it calls for “equivalent accessibility with direct rail access to the North’s strategic international airport (Manchester)”.

Finally, the strategy calls for an “increase in commuting capacity for each of the cities set at the Network Rail ‘high’ scenario level” - anything between 100-150%”.

While the Task Force has operated independently, it has drawn heavily upon the Rail North Long Term Strategy.

A completely separate document, it has a not dissimilar vision for the rail service that is needed to support the aspirations for the economy of the North of England over the next 20 years. It seeks to be a major input to these industry plans as they are worked out in the region.

While it also supports sustainable economic growth and the enhancement of service quality, it wants to improve the appeal of rail by encouraging more rail use, reducing environmental impacts and carbon emissions. Improving efficiency and reducing the cost per passenger is also one of its goals.

The strategy also calls for more freight to be carried on rail; an objective that the rail freight companies could help meet by replacing diesel locomotives with electric, once they are sure in the knowledge that the electrified routes (particularly to and from the ports) will exist.

The Tier One and Tier Two schemes are at the very earliest stages of scrutiny.

But as time goes on, the benefits of electrification for all of these lines will become much clearer, whether they are skewed in favour of passengers or freight. Could some Tier Three schemes be brought forward? Circumstances of any of these lines are subject to change as the economy’s needs demand different things of rail services.

“I don’t think this work will falter,” says Jones. “This report was compiled with more than one Control Period in mind”.

• This feature was published in RAIL 775 on May 27 2015