As more new fleets come into traffic, plenty of trains currently in service should come off-lease in the next 12 months - some without new homes to go to.
The entry into traffic of Class 730s with West Midlands Railway will have big implications for the existing Porterbrook Class 323 and Angel/Porterbrook Class 350 fleets.
The first three of WMR’s 26 three-car Class 323s have already moved to Northern, where they have joined 17 existing units. Most of the others are due to follow, but seven units will be left ‘homeless’.
And once the Class 730/2s enter traffic, that will allow WMR’s 37 four-car Class 350/2 fleet to be replaced.
Already London Northwestern Railway has dispensed with its Class 319 units, which have gone for scrap.
Elsewhere, disposal of Class 507s continues on Merseyside as more Class 777s come on stream.
And the entry into traffic of Class 197s with Transport for Wales has allowed the Class 175s to be stood down. It has been suggested that these may be on the radar of Great Western Railway.
As more Class 197s, ‘756s’ and then ‘398s’ come into service within the next 12-24 months, that should mean heavy inroads into the TfW Class 150/153/158 fleets, with their return to owners Porterbrook (‘150/153s’) and Angel Trains (‘158s’) inevitable.
Despite CrossCountry confirming that it is taking 12 Class 221s from Avanti, that still leaves six five-car Class 221s up for grabs, with open access operators understood to be interested in these units.
That also applies to the Class 222 fleet in use with East Midlands Railways, when their eventual replacement by Class 810s takes place in 2025-26.
The Class 455s dispensed with by South Western Railway when Class 701 Arterios finally enter squadron service are expected to be sent straight for scrap as life-expired.
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