After 15 years of stagnation… Wales expects

Arriva rejigged its timetable in 2005, putting in 20% more services “at our own commercial risk… moving capacity to where it was needed… and where it would earn more,” Cobbe says. It was able to add a small number of older diesel units. And yet, when demand started rising steadily in the late 2000s, “the pips began to squeak”. 

ATW had to soldier on without any prospect of getting any more rolling stock, new or old. Typically, its trains were 27 years old, but some were as old as 40 - a pretty hopeless situation, yet one that seems unlikely to be repeated. “Awarding the franchise based on a zero-growth contract was a huge failure,” acknowledges the WAC report.

What sort of a fist ATW has made of its 15-year deal depends on whom you ask. It’s widely felt that Arriva’s engineers have performed minor miracles in keeping an aged fleet more or less on the rails. And punctuality has improved over time - from 78% of trains arriving within five minutes of intended time in 2003 to over 92%, according to recent figures. 

But while ATW Managing Director Ian Bullock claims his company has halved delays over the years, he concedes that the Cambrian line “has dipped in performance” and that some Marches and Valleys services have deteriorated.

Almost everyone agrees that the new franchise should be more demanding.  Until now Arriva has faced fines only for poor time-keeping. There’s been no imperative to push up passenger numbers, reduce journey times, or even to have clean trains. 

Skates says complaints have been “pretty fundamental stuff”’ - about rolling stock quality, too few seats and the standard of refreshments and toilets. “It’s vital there are incentives and contractual obligations that ensure customers receive a good level of service,” says WAC. 

There’s a broad assumption that the franchise map will remain intact - including the routes that cross into England - although some witnesses to WAC’s review still worry that existing Arriva territory could somehow be eroded. 

“The worst thing of all would be if franchising led to the severing of much-needed services - to places like Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol,” says Cobbe.  

According to Rail Delivery Group Policy Director Elizabeth De Jong, any remapping that forces a change of trains at the border “would make people less likely to use trains and disconnect economic centres”’ It could harm the franchise’s viability, she says, adding: “It would be smaller, and that might impact on the number of bidders.” 

Arriva-run services from Shrewsbury to Manchester and Birmingham are profitable, which (as Cole points out) means the Welsh Government’s subsidy is reduced. However, Skates doesn’t anticipate the franchise map shrinking - indeed, quite the reverse. 

“We’ve reached agreement, in principle, for it to operate services from destinations in Wales to Bristol and Liverpool,” he told the committee. Meanwhile WAC has recommended looking into other train operators extending long-distance services into Wales, “where efficient and cost-effective”.

If bidders are to invest seriously, the consensus is that any new franchise should run for at least a decade - WAC suggests ten to 15 years, “given the improvements required”. Skates considers 15 years “would enable continuity”, adding: “But termination rights should be built in, in case of non-compliance or default.”

Meanwhile, WAC says the Welsh Government needs to push ahead with securing new rolling stock. But this, as anyone in the rail industry knows, is an excruciatingly slow business - up to three years for electric trains and four for diesels, according to Cole.

WAC says one way forward is for the UK and Welsh Governments to work together - maybe tag on to orders already in the pipeline, such as the DfT’s train order for the Northern franchise. Moreover, it suggests that where rolling stock is freed up by completed new infrastructure projects, Wales should have first refusal on these trains. 

The future for Welsh rail infrastructure remains another unknown. One function being retained by the UK Government is its power to direct Network Rail, much to Skates’ chagrin. He’d like that power devolved, as has happened in Scotland.  “Historical underfunding of the rail network within Wales should be dealt with in the next Control Period,” he says.

Westminster will fully fund electrification of the Great Western Main Line, including the section between Cardiff and Bridgend. But dismay remains widespread that running wires to Swansea has been shunted back, although the Welsh Government “continues to press” Westminster over a timescale for “honouring their commitment”.

The UK Government will also chip in £125m towards electrifying the Cardiff Valleys Lines - four routes linking Cardiff with Treherbert, Aberdare, Merthyr and Rhymney. However, Cole feels that’s a poor deal, telling WAC that is “not a fair proportion”. 

Electrification is phase 2 of the South Wales Metro project. The cost of this is currently estimated at £734m, although the Welsh Government says the final bill will be determined during procurement negotiations. And this scheme still begs key questions… notably, will it adopt heavy rail or light rail, or a combination supplemented by integrated rapid bus services? 

Despite all the Brexit convulsions, Wales is still seeking a £110m contribution from the EU towards Metro Phase 2. 

“Triggering Article 50 won’t impact on the Welsh Government’s ability to submit funding bids,” a spokesman says. 

“The European Commission has said it will continue to administer UK programmes while Brexit negotiations are taking place. We anticipate the South Wales Metro bid will be approved before the UK leaves the EU.” 

Rail Minister Paul Maynard has promised Wales won’t be left in the lurch: “If the Welsh Government makes bids into the EU while we’re still a member and is successful… then after we have left, we’ll guarantee that funding.” 

One urgent priority for Wales is modernising Cardiff Central station. Bullock told MPs that it’s unfit for purpose “in terms of the number of people it carries or tries to move during special events”, which can be up to 45,000. That’s aside from the daily pressures - during rush hour the staircases, subways, concourse and ticket barriers are suitable only for a station carrying half the number of passengers, says Cobbe.

The cost? That depends on the design, which hasn’t been decided, although it is a work in progress with the DfT and Network Rail. Bullock says that while time, effort and money have gone into improving basic facilities at 246 stations under ATW’s wing, other aspects such as accessibility still need to be tackled. All of this must wait until the next franchise, says Skates. 

Up country, much needs to be addressed in North Wales. The average train speed from Bangor to Manchester is 37mph, from Holyhead to Bangor 34 mph, and from Wrexham to Liverpool “an interstellar 24mph - actually slower than a horse”, according to Ashley Rogers, who chairs the region’s business council. 

Small wonder that rail share of the daily commute can be as low as 1% in some areas. One way forward would be to install double tracks - Cole claims “a lot of padding” in timetables is caused by single tracking, because train companies want to avoid fines for late running. Doubling could increase frequencies and cut journey times.

WAC says electrification in North Wales must become a priority. Some think that the best starting point could be upgrading the Wrexham-Bidston line and routes between Holyhead and Crewe, which would improve connections to cities in the North West of England.

The Welsh Government claims that since 2011, only around 1.5% of money spent on rail improvements across England and Wales has been solely on the Wales Route areas. If so, that’s a pitiful amount.  

Will that improve? Only time will tell what Network Rail reckons it can afford.

This feature was published in RAIL 822 on 11th March 2017