Estimated revenue from running the service was £1.1m per annum at the lower end, and operating costs between £2m-£3m - suggesting it would require some level of ongoing subsidy.
Encouragingly for SELRAP, the BCR rose to as high as 6.5 if demand materialised at 30% above forecast. This does not seem entirely unrealistic, given the increase in demand for rail services experienced nationally since the report was written in 2013, and the actual footfall of other recently reopened lines (such as the Borders Railway, which has comfortably exceeded best estimates).
The implication from SELRAP is clear that it remains a low-risk and low-cost option, particularly when considering the challenging engineering solutions required to build the three times-longer Borders line, including 42 new structures, at a cost of £350m.
Nevertheless, SELRAP seems realistic, and accepts that success requires more than just mounting public support. Its best chance of DfT funding will come from inclusion in Rail North/Transport for the North’s updated Long Term Rail Strategy, which proposes investment priorities across the north of England for when it gains devolved spending powers in 2017. A further option could be to obtain third party funding, as advocated by the Shaw Report in March 2016, although how Network Rail (NR) intends to implement that particular recommendation and accept private investment is still at a fledgling stage.
In any case, NR’s eight-stage Guide to Rail Investment Process (GRIP) requires a sponsor to step forward from local government to bring railway projects forward.
Councils are obviously nervous of committing to cover any operating losses in the current economic climate, when huge budgetary pressures exist elsewhere to protect vital frontline public services. So to force the issue SELRAP hosted a special meeting on January 6 2015, chaired by the DfT and attended by all regional local authorities, Rail North and Network Rail.
This meeting resulted in the formation of an Outputs Definition Group, chaired by Lancashire County Council, that has subsequently produced its own report which makes for positive reading. With the ODC’s support, it will now be fed into Rail North/TfN’s emerging strategy, which we all await with interest - not least in East Lancashire.
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