“There are a number of frankly unhelpful surveys that have come out and asked members of the public if ‘they think they would like a driverless car’ when it’s very difficult to make a judgement on that when you haven’t experienced one. In our early demonstrations we’ve all seen there is a lot of interest, a lot of excitement, and ready acceptance of automated vehicles. So let’s get out there, do the trials and find out the genuine opinions people have.”
Assuming the Boston Consulting Group’s view of the impact of AVs is correct, what then should the rail industry be doing to prepare itself to compete in a changing transport landscape? Steffens has a four-point manifesto.
“Step one would be to also seize the advantages of autonomous technology… it would be a strange situation if there were autonomous cars and not an autonomous train. It seems more difficult for an autonomous car to navigate through a city than it is for an autonomous train.
“Step two would be to accelerate the improvement of their proposition. Many rail companies in the world are trying to improve quality, trying to reduce costs, trying to improve reliability. We think they need to fast forward those efforts - that is their only chance to close the gap between where the car will be in ten years from now and where rail can be. Many rail companies need to up their game in their efforts to be cheaper, faster, more reliable and more customer-friendly.
“Step three - they need to assess their investment pipeline. Typically rail companies have pipelines for buying new rolling stock or replacing infrastructure or building new. Several of those will still be very much needed 20 or 30 years from now, but others will be less needed compared with today. Companies need to stress test their investment in case the driverless car becomes a big success.
“Step four - they can also try to become successful in managing their own fleet of driverless vehicles, because it is another type of public transport. Try to build a proposition themselves in driverless mobility.”
Ironically Steffens’ last point brings the past to mind. Railway companies once owned fleets of small vehicles - goods that had arrived by train at a main line terminal could be delivered through city streets by the likes of the Scammell Scarab. Could something similar be reintroduced one day, but this time without a driver and purely for the purpose of picking up and dropping off passengers ‘at the door’?
Whatever the developments in other transport modes, the rail industry at least heads towards the future having enjoyed a huge growth in passenger numbers. On the horizon, HS2 promises faster inter-city journeys and to release capacity on other routes, while new trains will continue to improve and develop the passenger experience.
Perhaps right now, the promised rise of AVs should be viewed first and foremost as a reminder not to rest complacently. But will they ever deliver on their promise?
As Stephen Joseph concludes: “We are some way off yet. We’ve had flying cars since Tomorrow’s World in the 1960s - and they are still not here!”
