We all make our transport decisions based on a mixture of convenience, choice and cost. So new transport choices, such as autonomous vehicles are likely to present both an opportunity and a threat to the railways: an opportunity as these vehicles could present a very real choice for the ‘last mile’ problem (how do you get to and from the railway station?); a threat as they will offer a very real choice for lots of journeys where people currently use rail and bus.
For a group of people travelling together, Uber offers a very real choice, and I suspect it is already nibbling away at the margins of rail services. It is certainly having an impact on bus services. Imagine if that service becomes much cheaper – no driver! Then autonomous vehicles will really become a compelling option for journeys around the margins of major conurbations.
Rail will probably continue to dominate in some markets. Mass commuting to city centres will always need more capacity than any road-based transport can offer (apart from bus rapid transit). High-speed, long-distance travel might always need specialised vehicles. However, even here there could be new developments. Many trains sit idle for most of the day. Great if they could come off the network and do something else while waiting for the peak again - a real rubber-wheeled tram-train in action!
Autonomy is clearly an intended direction of some sectors of the roads industry, and there are clear signs of progress. Public transport (rail, bus or tram) is likely to be affected, and it will have to seriously up its game as some users opt for automated vehicles. A shift from rail to road will have potential negative consequences for users of motorways and major ‘A’ roads. Increased demand for road space, regardless of whether the driver is human or autonomous, could cause major issues for journey reliability and user satisfaction.
That said, current autonomous technology is adding exciting developments to the whole transport industry. It is no longer
confined to an episode of Tomorrow’s World to have vehicles equipped with the ability to correct lane drifting, identify something appearing in a driver’s blind spot, or apply the brakes in an emergency. These are all good features in the quest to make roads safer. Public transport is also embracing its fair share of useful autonomy, with accurate, real-time information becoming the standard need for passengers and smart ticketing adding to consumer expectation.
Technology should cater for what users want, and the whole transport industry needs a balanced approach to future developments. Autonomous vehicles should not be developed in isolation without taking into account the wider consumer and transport sector considerations. An all-encompassing transport strategy is required to ensure that future transport can be accurately predicted and provided for.
So, to the question of full autonomous vehicles, the elusive self-driving car. I have no doubt that current and future technology will be able to deliver the solutions to enable cars to allow a fully autonomous journey between two locations. The question should not be based on whether we can develop this technology, but whether we should develop it based on current infrastructure limitations, consumer requirements and our wider social need to balance demand for the whole transport sector. Or will the market simply fill the space?
