Joined-up Thinking
“Whenever Network Rail does routine maintenance, what it puts back is going to be subject to more extreme cycles of climate than it had before,” says Powrie. “It needs to upgrade as it goes. As with speed restrictions in hot weather, it has to agree a balance between cost and acceptable disruption.
“There is an ambition to predict the effects of a forthcoming storm. We are some way from that. But this is partly about linking up current knowledge. It is about understanding what a particular weather pattern will do, and understanding how the infrastructure will perform against that.
“It is about combining separate knowledge areas to understand how complete systems work together - for example, how transport corridors double as flood routing measures in conjunction with the waste water infrastructure.”
Gallop responds: “We speak the same language as other asset owners and regulators. We talk in terms of return periods - that is the currency the Environment Agency uses for flooding. It is about a common language, so we know what we are buying, what benefits we get, and also understand what we cannot do. We cannot stop various changes, we just have to accommodate them and get used to them.
“We are now being impacted by the start of what appears to be pretty significant change. The rainfall pattern is shifting. For perhaps 11½ months of the year we do not need to meet high rainfall resilience. But for two weeks we do. Structures, earthworks and drainage all have to meet that two weeks.
“The cost of weather in train delays has been in excess of £30m on the Western route over the past two years. That’s not the cost of putting it right, it’s just the cost in payments to train companies for disruption.
“The commercial mechanisms we face are causing us to design differently. The punitive costs from embankments slipping or flooding, or signalling being submerged, are very large.”
Who Picks Up The Bill?
Where the railway acts as a flood defence, Network Rail has to work alongside the Environment Agency.
“Do I pay?” asks Gallop. “Does the Environment Agency pay? EA’s business model means it can only develop a case against flooding to domestic properties. Not railways. Not electricity substations.
“The utilities - and I include Network Rail - are exposed to significant future costs. As a nation, we need to rationalise how those costs are going to be picked up. Will the consumer pay? Does it go on your rail fare, your water rate or your electricity bill? Or is the Government going to do things differently?
“To be blunt, the Government is sitting on its hands and giving no direction at all, beyond saying it is a matter for the Environment Agency and the utilities. Of course it isn’t - flooding due to climate change is a national issue.
“Flooding at Hinksey affects all the freight heading from Southampton docks to the Midlands and Scotland. How could Oxfordshire County Council reasonably be expected to fund flood prevention there when it derives no benefit? How could Wessex Water be expected to fund upgrades to its pumping stations on the Somerset Levels to keep water off the railway? Should the consumer pay for that through higher bills?
“There is unresolved tension about this, because the charges are going to be substantial. I fear it is going to take a major electricity transmission failure, such as the substation at Gloucester that almost flooded in 2007. It was millimetres away from the whole thing going pop. Do we have to wait for half the West Midlands to be blacked out for a fortnight before something gets done?”
It is also clear that the industry has to adapt, and has to account for extra stresses and pressures. It also has to influence the way both staff and passengers appreciate the altering environment. Unless extortionate sums are invested, they will have to accept increasing levels of disruption.
The change will not be rapid. But even under the most moderate climate change scenarios, all areas of the UK are projected to become warmer. The West of the UK will become significantly wetter in winter, while the South will also become drier in summer. Sea levels will rise, and storm surges will be greater. For at best a few decades, the impact will be occasional and manageable. But doing more than at present is not a choice… it is essential.
