RSSB: Unequivocal Evidence
There is unequivocal evidence that Britain’s railway will be affected by climate change, according to a report published by RSSB on May 31.
The report - Tomorrow’s Railway and Climate Change Adaptation - follows two years of research, led by RSSB but largely conducted by consultant Arup.
It concludes that higher temperatures, more frequent and more extreme weather events, and rising sea levels create risks for railway staff, passengers and operations. There will be more disruption, more damage to infrastructure, and more impact on people’s health and wellbeing.
“We recognise that by 2050-2080 the English climate will be similar to that of central France today,” says Mark Phillips, interim managing director of RSSB. “And we need to consider now how to prepare for it.”
RSSB says the average cost of weather-related disruption is now between £40 million and £50m a year. And that’s just the price of delays and cancellations - the cost of repairs comes on top.
The report makes a series of recommendations to ensure that preparing for changing weather is locked into the industry’s processes. It says the industry needs to compare the cost of adapting to the changes with the cost of doing nothing. In a case study of Cowley Bridge, near Exeter, it finds the price of doing nothing until 2050 is at least 15 times greater than the cost of fixing it.
To get a more realistic measure of climate change, RSSB suggests replacing today’s “delay minutes” system with a new “journey availability” measure. This would combine infrastructure availability with the supply of trains to operate a service.
“This will be a five to ten-year piece of work because it would be incorporated in franchise letting,” says Phillips.
The report notes that there are gaps in the preparations - different climate thresholds are used in design criteria on different parts of the railway. “It is unclear what scientific consideration underpins some thresholds,” the report warns.
RSSB recommends that a “vulnerability map” is produced - a database of assets that are at risk from excess rainfall, drought, river or coastal flooding. This should include all critical lineside equipment such as signalling. ν
The Recommendations
- Conduct detailed vulnerability mapping of assets and locations.
- Enhance weather incident reporting and asset condition monitoring.
- Develop alert systems and weather susceptibility maps.
- Review and revise standards to make rail assets climate change-proof.
- Replace vulnerable assets, taking a long-term view of climate change adaptation.
- Develop a Journey Availability measure rather than “delay minutes” to measure the long-term performance of the railways
